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Following his conquest of the land, he co-opted the local elites to hold onto the state — and after he died, Iran quickly regained its independence.

Iran and the US want to avoid a direct military clash, but also do not want to lose their face among their respective allies. Still, the attempts to diminish tensions between the two powers become less and less effective as Iran grows its nuclear-related capabilities and the US sees less and less room to entice Tehran into a mutually beneficial understanding. Iran-US tensions after drone attacks: Can Tokyo along with other Asian countries calm down the tempers? Saudi Arabia appears to be backing away from its largely disastrous assertive and robust go-it alone foreign and defense policy posture and reverting to a more cautious approach that embraces multilateralism, seeks international backing before acting and emphasizes traditional and public diplomacy.

Saudi state minister for foreign affairs Adel al-Jubeir made that clear, saying that Saudi Arabia had not ruled out a military response to drone and missile attacks that severely damaged two if its key oil installations. Dunais recalls. Unlike the United States that put responsibility for the attacks squarely on the shoulders of Iran, Saudi spokesmen were careful to stop short of holding Iran directly responsible for the attacks. Instead, they asserted that the weapons used in the attacks were Iranian made and therefore bore some degree of responsibility.

Al-Jubeir said foreign experts had already arrived in the kingdom. Driving the point home, Mr. Earlier, Britain, Bahrain and Australia pledged to participate in the coalition. That realization came as Saudi Arabia was working to repair damage to its image as a result of its conduct of the Yemen war; the killing of Mr.

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Yet, in a sign of the times and in contrast to earlier incidents involving Sweden and Canada, Mr. Alwasil did not threaten disruption of trade and other forms of cooperation with Australia nor did he indicate that the kingdom may expel Australian diplomats.

Trump made clear that his inclination was not to launch a risky retaliatory strike against Iran in response to the attacks but to tighten economic sanctions and to continue exploring a possible dialogue with the Islamic republic,. Adding insult to injury, Mr. Trump emphasized the fact that the attacks were against Saudi Arabia and not against the United States and that his administration would support a Saudi response or potentially act on its behalf against payment.

As a result, Saudi Arabia has been manoeuvring to ensure that the situation does not get out of control and that it is not put in a position in which it risks an all-out war that could prove to be devastating. The UAE has partially withdrawn its forces from Yemen in an effort to prevent further reputational damage, a move that sparked fighting between UAE and Saudi-backed forces in the country.

It was careful not to blame Iran for attacks on tankers off the coast of the UAE believed to have been launched by Iran and reached out to the Islamic republic by sending a coast guard delegation to Tehran. Higher costs and greater risk perceptions were likely one consequence of his transactional approach towards the kingdom. While there was a possibility of a thaw between Washington and Tehran after the G7 Summit, held in August , at Biarritz, France with both sides making the right noises. On September 22, , the anniversary of the Iraq invasion Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani warned against the presence of foreign troops in the Gulf, saying that this would lead only to more apprehensions and insecurities.

The Iranian President also stated, that Tehran had extended its hand of friendship towards countries in the region for maintenance of security in the Gulf, as well as the Strait of Hormuz.

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The Foreign Minister made a telling remark:. We continue to leave the door open for diplomacy. In the meantime, our campaign for economic pressure will continue. Hours before his speech, one of his spokespersons stated, that Tehran was willing to give commitments with regard to not expanding its nuclear program, provided US lifted sanctions.

During his speech, Rouhani made it clear, that while he was willing to engage with US, he would not do so under any sort of pressure, and Tehran would only engage with Washington, if US imposed economic sanctions are removed. Rouhani dubbed these sanctions as economic terrorism. Statement issued by France, UK and Germany and remarks with regard to the attack on oil facilities. What was significant however, was the statement issued by UK, US and France on September 23, that Tehran was responsible for the attack on the oil facilities run by Aramco. A statement made by Trump, where he stated, that he was willing to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and described Iran as a country of great potential, raised hopes of possible engagement with Iran.

Trump in his usual style did put forward conditionalities, and did state that he was not party to a joint statement by G7 on Iran. It would be pertinent to point out, that Macron even attempted a meeting between Hassan Rouhani and Trump on the sidelines of the UNGA meeting, though this did not work out.


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While the reactions of European countries and UK are important, one country, which has been very cautious in its reaction has been Japan. Japan has close economic ties with Iran. Interestingly, Brian Hook, US Special Envoy to Iran while alluding to Japan, China and other Asian countries stated, that countries, must not shy away from unequivocally stating, that Iran was responsible for the September 14 th attack on Saudi oil facilities.

Hook gave the example of UK, France and Germany who had done so. It would be important to point out, that Japan which has close economic ties with Iran, has already started looking at other sources of oil given the situation in the Middle East. It is not just Japan, even India would not like escalation of conflict with Iran, though so far it has stayed out. Some recent statements from the Iranian side suggest a growing impatience with New Delhi, not merely due to toeing the US line with regard to import of oil from Iran India had stopped buying oil from Iran, after US removed the temporary waiver which it had given but also slow progress on the Chabahar Port.

While India has not made any statement with regard to the attack on Saudi oil facilities, Indian Foreign Secretary, Vijay Gokhale visited Iran days after the attack a number of issues such as the progress of the Chabahar Port and issues pertaining to trilateral connectivity between India, Afghanistan and Iran were discussed.

Both of them are supposed to have discussed issues of bilateral and regional importance. It is time, that countries which have close ties with the US, and robust economic engagement with Iran find common ground, rather than speaking in different voices. While at the G7 meeting, there was an opportunity for the same, this was short lived. This is essential, not just for economic and strategic purposes, but also to ensure, that Iran does not become totally dependent upon China.

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Steven P. Joanne R Bauer. The Book of Agreement. Stewart Levine. Ori Wiener. Conflict without Casualties. Getting future rent increases capped is always a good idea.

Iran-US Tensions Are Unlikely to Spill into War

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